Hello from Russia!

[Sergo]

Can't you melt it with all that extra gas you're holding on to?

Btw, have you been watching this?

I am sure that is on our natural gas problem with Ukraine.
GPRS works especially poorly today, so I would not see content of these two sites until maybe tomorrow.
I understand those in GASPROM who tried to get real money for their gas from their Ukrainian customer. Especially after EU recently confirming that Ukraine has an "open market economy". I think that is bullshit, as Ukraine is at least a mile farther from the "open market economy" than Russia, but it seems it has been politically correct for European fat cats to say that.
As to "Ukrainian people" - it is pity they will have to pay more for our gas (now they pay less in Ukraine for our gas than we do - I pay more for the same cubic metre of our gas than my wife's parents in Ukraine do). But that's their politicians who are responsible for this. As to us, we are ready to help my wife's parents more, if that will come to that, but Ukraine must pay for our product our price or not to buy it. And "buying" anything for the price less than what seller proposed, without seller's confirmation that he is willing to do so - is theft, and Europe must understand that Ukrainian leaders are just that - thieves.

BTW, I am using my gas boiler for more than two month already, and it works just wonderful. I am already starting to forgot my "gas fobia".

 

[Sergo]

and here are a couple of photos taken in Copenhagen at night!
How does Moscow and London look like now??

Flower

Moscow looks about the same. When I return there, I will try to send you two or three photos of our dacha - lots of snow this year...

BTW, it was illegal to drink alcoholic drinks in Moscow during New Year celebration - but it is impossible to stop Moscovites from doing that, so this year is exactly like the one before...
And we drank on our dacha as much as we wanted, of course. Not that that was too much, though... Mostly Asti Cinzano, Asti Martino and our wines of the same quality.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

Kenny, I like your sense of humor very much.

I sit at my keyboard with your entertainment my primary goal...

 

[Kenny Shovel]

I am sure that is on our natural gas problem with Ukraine.
GPRS works especially poorly today, so I would not see content of these two sites until maybe tomorrow.

The second link was from the BBC website; it was detailing a Russian TV dramatisation of 'The Master and Margareta' which is supposed to be very popular. I was wondering if you had seen it.

I understand those in GASPROM who tried to get real money for their gas from their Ukrainian customer. Especially after EU recently confirming that Ukraine has an "open market economy". I think that is bullshit, as Ukraine is at least a mile farther from the "open market economy" than Russia, but it seems it has been politically correct for European fat cats to say that.

Ah, but all sides are playing politics with a situation that has been waiting to happen since the 'Orange Revolution'; the EU wants people to believe in a Ukriane that is moving westward.

As to "Ukrainian people" - it is pity they will have to pay more for our gas (now they pay less in Ukraine for our gas than we do - I pay more for the same cubic metre of our gas than my wife's parents in Ukraine do). But that's their politicians who are responsible for this. As to us, we are ready to help my wife's parents more, if that will come to that, but Ukraine must pay for our product our price or not to buy it. And "buying" anything for the price less than what seller proposed, without seller's confirmation that he is willing to do so - is theft, and Europe must understand that Ukrainian leaders are just that - thieves.

Sure, it is obvious what has happened to disrupted supplies from Russia to EU that go through the Ukraine. The Ukrianian government are not playing a subtle hand, but then neither is Putin. He could raise prices to Ukraine from subsidised rates (like the ones that Belerus will still have) to EU levels over a period of time; but he does it in one go and scares the horses (in this case customers in the EU). I'm sure he's very skilled at internal politics but I'm not so sure about his abilities on the International stage. Anyway, who knows, perhaps he wants others to see Russia flex her economic muscles a little?

 

[Sergo]

The second link was from the BBC website; it was detailing a Russian TV dramatisation of 'The Master and Margareta' which is supposed to be very popular. I was wondering if you had seen it.

Yep, I have, and liked it. It is very much like the original book, though of course more simple, without some more subtle impressions only reading could create. The only big failure is Behemote the Cat: he is just a doll, weared by a small man. I imagine that will all the millions in the budget the could make a computer animated image.
I recorded the film in, I suppose, MP4... And it is already accessible in many places on the net - so if you are interested, I will find the links for you. But the film is rather huge...

Ah, but all sides are playing politics with a situation that has been waiting to happen since the 'Orange Revolution'; the EU wants people to believe in a Ukriane that is moving westward.

Yep, that's exactly what I see here: Europeans want to get Ukraine to their side so much they are willing not to see that Ukraine is not better than Russia. And for Ukraine leaders it is a foul play too: now that the West is so much interested in Ukraine, Mr. Yushenko and those with him hope that the West will not recognise their faults.

Sure, it is obvious what has happened to disrupted supplies from Russia to EU that go through the Ukraine. The Ukrianian government are not playing a subtle hand, but then neither is Putin. He could raise prices to Ukraine from subsidised rates (like the ones that Belerus will still have) to EU levels over a period of time; but he does it in one go and scares the horses (in this case customers in the EU). I'm sure he's very skilled at internal politics but I'm not so sure about his abilities on the International stage. Anyway, who knows, perhaps he wants others to see Russia flex her economic muscles a little?

Yes, of course prices could be risen not so steeply. But it is for the seller to decide what price he would get for his goods, especially if there are other parties at the market who buy exactly the same goods for even higher price. I thought it is what the free market was about, how do you think? As to other countries... Maybe it would have being just to ask the same price from all the countries. But again it is the right of the seller to decide. And as far as I know, there are some special favours Russia gets from Bielorussia, such as getting some form of ownership of lands on which the pipes are situated etc. And, of course, there are some political treaties to speak of, including military. And Ukraine have for a long time demonstrated its "political and economical independence" from Russia. OK, if you say you are independent, - please try to be independent for a change, that's what I think. I have not heard them to say that they depend on Russia still - OK, if they are not confirming they depend on Russia, why should Russia be concerned about their problems more than they themselves are ready to recognise?
As to "economical pressure": I do not believe such a thing could be possible between two really independent countries, operating on a free market: so if Ukraine could be "economically pressed", and cannot go to international market and buy gas there - it cannot be considered a "country with free market economy".
As to "flexing economical muscles" - OK, Russia obviously has what to flex. It may be not so wise to do so, especially at the cost of showing the Western customers that they depend on Russian resources far too much for their own safety, but... There are far more foolish things that I see in this problem, but the issue really is a very simple one: one country declares itself an independent country, but asks from another country some very special favors, and when that country doesn't grant those - the first one gets what it needs without the owner's permission. It is theft, and in every civilized country it is a criminal offence. Other views on this problem look to me as politicised speculations, pointed not at getting to the truth, but rather at condemning Russia as a monster, and showing Ukraine as a beautiful victim.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

Yep, I have, and liked it. It is very much like the original book, though of course more simple, without some more subtle impressions only reading could create. The only big failure is Behemote the Cat: he is just a doll, weared by a small man. I imagine that will all the millions in the budget the could make a computer animated image.

Yes, I wondered about the cat, which was always going to be the most difficult thing to reproduce. They really needed the same technology used in the Lord of the Rings films and more recently King Kong, but I guess that would cost a lot.

I recorded the film in, I suppose, MP4... And it is already accessible in many places on the net - so if you are interested, I will find the links for you. But the film is rather huge...

I use a normal dial-up connection so it’d take too long, plus my Russian isn’t good enough to follow it without subtitles. Anyway it might get bought by the BBC, it’s the sort of thing they’d show on one of their digital channels like BBC4.

Yep, that's exactly what I see here: Europeans want to get Ukraine to their side so much they are willing not to see that Ukraine is not better than Russia. And for Ukraine leaders it is a foul play too: now that the West is so much interested in Ukraine, Mr. Yushenko and those with him hope that the West will not recognise their faults.

Yes, and Putin is trying to use economic means to bring the Ukraine to heal. The timing of this has been carefully chosen, just before the winter really digs in, so that the Ukrainian people are hurt in a way they will remember at the next general elections. Interesting that Putin dislikes democracy in his own country but is quite happy to use it to further his aims in other peoples…

Yes, of course prices could be risen not so steeply. But it is for the seller to decide what price he would get for his goods, especially if there are other parties at the market who buy exactly the same goods for even higher price. I thought it is what the free market was about, how do you think?

Sure, the free market will find it’s own level – Adam Smith would be proud of you.

As to other countries... Maybe it would have being just to ask the same price from all the countries. But again it is the right of the seller to decide. And as far as I know, there are some special favours Russia gets from Bielorussia, such as getting some form of ownership of lands on which the pipes are situated etc. And, of course, there are some political treaties to speak of, including military.

Sure, but then you can also say that 80% of the gas that Russia sells to the EU is piped through the Ukraine, and that the Russian Black sea fleet is based in the Crimea and Odessa, which sounds very similar to what you describe of the relationship between Russia and Belerus. So what’s the difference between Belerus and the Ukraine again???

And Ukraine have for a long time demonstrated its "political and economical independence" from Russia.

Ah, now that’s more like it, I think we’ve found the real problem that Russia has with the Ukraine…

OK, if you say you are independent, - please try to be independent for a change, that's what I think. I have not heard them to say that they depend on Russia still - OK, if they are not confirming they depend on Russia, why should Russia be concerned about their problems more than they themselves are ready to recognise?

True in principle I agree, but this situation is a little more complex perhaps as it was created in Soviet times. So whilst the gas comes from Russia, it is piped directly through the Ukraine to the EU rather than around it.

As to "economical pressure": I do not believe such a thing could be possible between two really independent countries, operating on a free market: so if Ukraine could be "economically pressed", and cannot go to international market and buy gas there - it cannot be considered a "country with free market economy".

Again, in principle I agree, although in this case you may not be factoring in transportation costs, which is rather ironic…

As to "flexing economical muscles" - OK, Russia obviously has what to flex. It may be not so wise to do so, especially at the cost of showing the Western customers that they depend on Russian resources far too much for their own safety, but... There are far more foolish things that I see in this problem, but the issue really is a very simple one: one country declares itself an independent country, but asks from another country some very special favors, and when that country doesn't grant those - the first one gets what it needs without the owner's permission. It is theft, and in every civilized country it is a criminal offence. Other views on this problem look to me as politicised speculations, pointed not at getting to the truth, but rather at condemning Russia as a monster, and showing Ukraine as a beautiful victim.

Sure, I can see what you’re saying, and I agree that as soon as Yushenko started moving the Ukriane towards the west this situation has always been ‘on the cards’; and you are correct that Russia is well within it’s rights to sell it’s gas to whoever it wants and for whatever price it can get. But it is worth remembering that the Ukraine can play the free-marketer as well. It would also be within it’s rights to increase the rent for any pipelines Russia has going across it’s land. And perhaps the Russian navy is not the only customer who may want to use the Ukraine’s ports; perhaps NATO would pay more? I wonder how much Mr Putin would enjoy having the Royal Navy and a US carrier group using the black sea as their own private boating lake?

altogether now,
"what shall we do with a drunken sailor,
what shall we do with a drunken Sailor,
Ear-lie in the morning" etc etc

K-S

 

[Flowerdk4]

I sit at my keyboard with your entertainment my primary goal...

Love this!

just not quite how I picture you though.

Flower

 

[Flowerdk4]

Moscow looks about the same. When I return there, I will try to send you two or three photos of our dacha - lots of snow this year...

BTW, it was illegal to drink alcoholic drinks in Moscow during New Year celebration - but it is impossible to stop Moscovites from doing that, so this year is exactly like the one before...
And we drank on our dacha as much as we wanted, of course. Not that that was too much, though... Mostly Asti Cinzano, Asti Martino and our wines of the same quality.

Yes, I could imagine that to make it illegal to drink on the red square and to try to stop it was a thought/idea of the old times where the KBG could controll people.
I had a couple of glasses of champagne to celebrate the new year plus all the other stuff that I drank, so I ended up having a hangover on my birthday.

Would love to see some photos of your dacha!

Flower

 

[Kenny Shovel]

Love this!

just not quite how I picture you though.

Well, I do normally comb my back hair before having a picture taken. I was clearly going for the "windswept and interesting" look in this snap...

 

[Sergo]

Yes, I wondered about the cat, which was always going to be the most difficult thing to reproduce. They really needed the same technology used in the Lord of the Rings films and more recently King Kong, but I guess that would cost a lot.

Maybe yes, though we have our own specialists (maybe not with such excellent skills, but passable just the same) whose work costs many times less than that of Americans). And I think almost any other option than the one used in the film would have being better...

I use a normal dial-up connection so it’d take too long, plus my Russian isn’t good enough to follow it without subtitles. Anyway it might get bought by the BBC, it’s the sort of thing they’d show on one of their digital channels like BBC4.

Yep, that will take forever... But the film is good enough to be worth waiting for it to be shown on BBC.

Yes, and Putin is trying to use economic means to bring the Ukraine to heal. The timing of this has been carefully chosen, just before the winter really digs in, so that the Ukrainian people are hurt in a way they will remember at the next general elections. Interesting that Putin dislikes democracy in his own country but is quite happy to use it to further his aims in other peoples…

Maybe. Though I do not think Mr. Putin and others here are dumb enough to hope they would be able to bring Ukraine back to form a kind of new USSR or something. And, again, Ukraine is not all that much different from Russia in terms of democracy. It is just that Russia is much stronger, and with Ukraine at its side it could have been even stronger. So that is exactly what lies behind proclaiming Ukraine an "open market economy" etc. - to move Ukraine farther apart from Russia and make Russia weaker. You know how much I like Mr. Putin and what a devouted follower of him I am, but that is an obvious thing, I would say.

Sure, the free market will find it’s own level – Adam Smith would be proud of you.

Thanks - I've heard of him, but cannot say that I know his ideas much.

Sure, but then you can also say that 80% of the gas that Russia sells to the EU is piped through the Ukraine, and that the Russian Black sea fleet is based in the Crimea and Odessa, which sounds very similar to what you describe of the relationship between Russia and Belerus. So what’s the difference between Belerus and the Ukraine again???

OK, OK, Ukraine gets payments for the transit, so what? The fact the pipe goes through their territory doesn't make them holy, or something? They were paid something near $US1 per 1000 cbm, and as far as I understand, it is about two times less than the current European price. I do not think GAZPROM is not willing to pay $US2 per 1000 cbm. The same is with the Russian fleet. Ukraine gets paid for it, and I think that Russia could afford to pay as much as is the regular price for that in Europe. As to differences between Bielorussia and Ukraine - it is for Russia to decide if there is any difference, when it gets to prices on Russian goods to be sold in Bielorussia or Ukraine.

Ah, now that’s more like it, I think we’ve found the real problem that Russia has with the Ukraine…

Yep, that's true - I will return to it later.

True in principle I agree, but this situation is a little more complex perhaps as it was created in Soviet times. So whilst the gas comes from Russia, it is piped directly through the Ukraine to the EU rather than around it.

Yes, this situation has been created much earlier. As well as a lot of factories established in Ukraine in the Soviet times, which now sell their goods to Russian customers for good prices, keeping in mind that almost nobody outside of former USSR would ever have them because of their quality. (That is, if these factories are still functioning, as most of them got bankrupted and ruined by their new owners). BTW, speaking about what has been created earlier, - Crimea has never been an Ukrainean territory before USSR - it has been won by Russia from Tartars and Turks, and given to Ukraine as a present by our Nikita Chruschev. So if we will constantly return to what was created in Soviet times - we will never have a chance to move forward.

Sure, I can see what you’re saying, and I agree that as soon as Yushenko started moving the Ukriane towards the west this situation has always been ‘on the cards’; and you are correct that Russia is well within it’s rights to sell it’s gas to whoever it wants and for whatever price it can get. But it is worth remembering that the Ukraine can play the free-marketer as well. It would also be within it’s rights to increase the rent for any pipelines Russia has going across it’s land. And perhaps the Russian navy is not the only customer who may want to use the Ukraine’s ports; perhaps NATO would pay more? I wonder how much Mr Putin would enjoy having the Royal Navy and a US carrier group using the black sea as their own private boating lake?

The thing is, as far as I know it - the relations between two our countries go very much on "free-marketer" basis, with gas the most outstanding exception. Yep, the most of Ukrainian economy is based on the Russian gas - but I cannot see it as Russian problem somehow. Ukrainian leaders should have thought about this long ago, when they decided to part with Russia.
And again to Crimea and Russian or NATO fleets. If we were speaking about my own position - I would have gone from Crimea long ago, and had built new bases in Russian Caucasus. I hate very much to depend on somebody.
But countries go their own ways. It is a fact there should be geopolitics or how they call it... So there are some ways to influence others. Every country does that. So I cannot see if it is OK for USA to influence other countries with all the means they have, why it is not OK for Russia to do the same thing. Because somebody else doesn't like that? Sorry, that's not a plausible reason.
So: any way we look at it, Russia can ask for ANY REASONABLE price for Russian gas, if it is ready to pay REASONAble price for transit, and if Mr. Putin does it for political reasons - OK, it is his right. I may not like him or his intentions, but I cannot see why Russia must be losing Russian's money, in order to keep floating other country's economy.

 

[abecedarian]

Well, I do normally comb my back hair before having a picture taken. I was clearly going for the "windswept and interesting" look in this snap...

The Kansas version of that "windswept & interesting" look is the "windblown, yup I are a Kansan" look! The majority of us just give up and let the prairie winds design our "do" for the day.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

And I think almost any other option than the one used in the film would have being better...

that’s a shame, but the production still sounds good.

But the film is good enough to be worth waiting for it to be shown on BBC.

Well, yes, if.

Maybe. Though I do not think Mr. Putin and others here are dumb enough to hope they would be able to bring Ukraine back to form a kind of new USSR or something.

I’m sure those in charge of Russia understand that, but they can still be unhappy with loss of influence on countries with which they share boarders. My understanding/interpretation of post war Russia is of a country that has been much violated throughout history and feels more comfortable if it is surrounded by a wall of friendly nations, so it is no longer on the front line. I doubt those feeling have changed since the end of the cold war, perhaps even intensified.

And, again, Ukraine is not all that much different from Russia in terms of democracy.

Indeed, as we say in England “The acorn doesn’t fall far from the tree”.

It is just that Russia is much stronger, and with Ukraine at its side it could have been even stronger.

But it’s not important if Russia feels stronger with the Ukraine, or if the EU wants it to be a similar style of economy. It is only important what the Ukrainian people want, and they still seem split on the issue. They also seem to be the ones being ignored in all this mess.

So that is exactly what lies behind proclaiming Ukraine an "open market economy" etc. - to move Ukraine farther apart from Russia and make Russia weaker. You know how much I like Mr. Putin and what a devouted follower of him I am, but that is an obvious thing, I would say.

It’s obvious that the west want the Ukraine to move closer to them. Perhaps that means they want a weaker Russia, or perhaps in the long term they seek a democratic Russia that they are close too also. Perhaps both viewpoints are present in all Western Governments, and the thing they agree on at present is the means rather than the end?

Thanks - I've heard of him, but cannot say that I know his ideas much.

Me neither, but he’s sort of as close to ‘the farther of free trade’ as you can get I guess…

OK, OK, Ukraine gets payments for the transit, so what? The fact the pipe goes through their territory doesn't make them holy, or something?

Nope, but it does mean that if Russia cuts gas supplies to the Ukraine, the Ukraine could in turn cut Russia’s supply route to it’s customers in the EU.

The same is with the Russian fleet. Ukraine gets paid for it, and I think that Russia could afford to pay as much as is the regular price for that in Europe. As to differences between Bielorussia and Ukraine - it is for Russia to decide if there is any difference, when it gets to prices on Russian goods to be sold in Bielorussia or Ukraine.

Of course, in the same way that the Ukraine can decide who uses its ports.

Yes, this situation has been created much earlier. As well as a lot of factories established in Ukraine in the Soviet times, which now sell their goods to Russian customers for good prices, keeping in mind that almost nobody outside of former USSR would ever have them because of their quality. (That is, if these factories are still functioning, as most of them got bankrupted and ruined by their new owners).

That’s an important point. In the Ukraine I feel things will get worse before they get better; as their economy was geared toward the internal market of the USSR, the process of changing this to take its place in the global economy is far behind the ambitions of its leaders (and probably people).

BTW, speaking about what has been created earlier, - Crimea has never been an Ukrainean territory before USSR - it has been won by Russia from Tartars and Turks, and given to Ukraine as a present by our Nikita Chruschev. So if we will constantly return to what was created in Soviet times - we will never have a chance to move forward.

Yes I was aware of that, in 54 I believe.

The thing is, as far as I know it - the relations between two our countries go very much on "free-marketer" basis, with gas the most outstanding exception.

Yes, it was much more free-market of Belarus to sell it’s Yamal pipeline to Gazprom, and much more protectionist of the Ukraine to refuse to make a similar deal.

Yep, the most of Ukrainian economy is based on the Russian gas - but I cannot see it as Russian problem somehow. Ukrainian leaders should have thought about this long ago, when they decided to part with Russia.

Well, if they’re surprised by this then they’re also stupid aren’t they.

And again to Crimea and Russian or NATO fleets. If we were speaking about my own position - I would have gone from Crimea long ago, and had built new bases in Russian Caucasus. I hate very much to depend on somebody.

But are the tourist facilities as well developed is in Crimea? All that wine tasting and beautiful countryside…

But countries go their own ways. It is a fact there should be geopolitics or how they call it... So there are some ways to influence others. Every country does that. So I cannot see if it is OK for USA to influence other countries with all the means they have, why it is not OK for Russia to do the same thing. Because somebody else doesn't like that? Sorry, that's not a plausible reason.

In principle it’s wrong for anyone to do it, in reality all countries do. Fighting for influence and control of natural resources is the way of the world...

So: any way we look at it, Russia can ask for ANY REASONABLE price for Russian gas, if it is ready to pay REASONAble price for transit, and if Mr. Putin does it for political reasons - OK, it is his right. I may not like him or his intentions, but I cannot see why Russia must be losing Russian's money, in order to keep floating other country's economy.

Absolutely, but just because he’s within his rights doesn’t mean he’s played his hand well. Before the ‘Orange Revolution’ the price of gas sold by Russia to the Ukraine was determined by a number of factors, market value being one, the strategic relationship between the countries, for the want of a better phrase, being another. As soon as the Ukraine pointed itself in the direction of the west, one of those factors was removed and as you rightly pointed out, it was obvious that the price of gas would sooner or later be re-valued. Putin’s mistake was to make the change in one sudden hike, to re-use my phrase from an earlier post he’s “frightened the horses” in the process. Now in the west the news is full of the EU re-examining its future energy policy as Russia is seen as an unreliable source of supply. For the want of introducing price increases over a number of years he’s caused a crisis of confidence in Russian Gas that could cost far more revenue than he will get in the short term. Grand gestures might play well at home but he’s not doing Russia any favours on the international stage.
But it’s ordinary Ukrainians I feel sorry for. They are being threatened with hardship because their politicians are playing at being independent, and Putin seems to want to show the Ukraine is being punished for wanting to walk it’s own path.

Anyway, regards,

K-S

 

[Sergo]

Oh, Kenny, I like this discussion very much, so please do not think I am angry or something. I will try to return tomorrow evening - we are going to Moscow tomorrow morning, my wife is offered a new contract and she will meet her colleagues tomorrow, and I will try to understand what's wrong with a new Apple player we bought for the daughter...

And, of course, I have some very solid arguments for you.

BR,
Sergo.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

...I have some very solid arguments for you...

I'm sure you'll form them into an impenetrable wall of logic…

 

[Sergo]

I’m sure those in charge of Russia understand that, but they can still be unhappy with loss of influence on countries with which they share boarders. My understanding/interpretation of post war Russia is of a country that has been much violated throughout history and feels more comfortable if it is surrounded by a wall of friendly nations, so it is no longer on the front line. I doubt those feeling have changed since the end of the cold war, perhaps even intensified.

I think your understanding is right, speaking of Russian leaders, but the same is right to some extent in respect to any other country: each one tends to have as many friendly or dependent territories between them and potentially dangerous countries. It's a geopolitics again, but those political things are too far away for me to understand them. So all I can say - it's my impressions, not knowledge.

Indeed, as we say in England “The acorn doesn’t fall far from the tree”.

Don't know what the acorn is, and didn't have a chance to check a dictionary... But I think you know that we have the same saying: "An apple doesn't fall far from the apple tree".

But it’s not important if Russia feels stronger with the Ukraine, or if the EU wants it to be a similar style of economy. It is only important what the Ukrainian people want, and they still seem split on the issue. They also seem to be the ones being ignored in all this mess.

As to peoples... People always want the same: bread and show. Sex and money. Democracy or just principles of living concern a very small part of citizens. Some of them want to go west, but only because they imagined for many years that the westerners were wealthy and the life there is much better and easier. They do not know how it is in reality, and if they learned, I think that it is very much possible that they would have changed their minds. So again it is for leaders and the propaganda.
It is my personal knowledge that the hard-working people in Russia live better, than in Ukraine, I have seen that for myself. But I have no intention to call for both our countries to unite - this should have come from Ukrainians, I think. As it is, I've heard too many Ukrainians to say that they do not want "to feed the Moskaly" any more ten or fifteen years ago. By now everybody but the idiots there have already understood that they were wrong, and Russia had fed Ukraine not less than Ukraine fed Russia, at least.

It’s obvious that the west want the Ukraine to move closer to them. Perhaps that means they want a weaker Russia, or perhaps in the long term they seek a democratic Russia that they are close too also. Perhaps both viewpoints are present in all Western Governments, and the thing they agree on at present is the means rather than the end?

Yes, I hope you are right. And if that was a goal - I would have gladly wish the Russia as it is now would fail and fall. As it is a country with too many wrong principles incorporated in its ruling echelones. But again - it is easier to topple anything, than to rebuild it right afterwards. And as we are not sure of the West intentions - what we are discussing here? Iraq and Afghanistan have already shown what supposedly even the best intentions could do.

Nope, but it does mean that if Russia cuts gas supplies to the Ukraine, the Ukraine could in turn cut Russia’s supply route to it’s customers in the EU.

Yep, but that would have been an act of... not war, but much more unfriendly step, then one Russia has done. As if you do not want to sell your goods for a bad price, but are ready to pay for the transit - it is pure blackmail to cut the pipe, and I think it is an unfriendly act not towards Russia, but all the gas-consuming Europe as well.

Of course, in the same way that the Ukraine can decide who uses its ports.

Sure. Again, I would have long gone from Sevastopol, if I had been the Russian leader. And really, I have no fear of the West. USA - maybe, because their presidents feel themselves over-responsible and omnipotent, but not Europe - Europe is far too logical to inflict any harm on Russia.

That’s an important point. In the Ukraine I feel things will get worse before they get better; as their economy was geared toward the internal market of the USSR, the process of changing this to take its place in the global economy is far behind the ambitions of its leaders (and probably people).

You know, there had been more than 11 years to adjust that, if I remember correctly. It is not much, and it were not enough for Russia to get well in the far regions, but really, Ukraine got much better off than Russia after the fall of the USSR. It is enough to mention Crimea, I think, but there are many companies vitally important for Russia that were left in Ukraine - airplanes production, military, metal and other chemical... And Ukraine has better climat, and better earth qualities... So if that is mostly ruin and theft that we see here and there in the Ukraine - it is not Russian fault, but that of the Ukrainian leaders. Our leaders are not angels either - take our Major Yury Lujkov (have you liked him after the BBC program?). But with all his bad qualities, he has done Moscow so much good as nobody before him, so I will gladly close my eye on his other activities.

Yes, it was much more free-market of Belarus to sell it’s Yamal pipeline to Gazprom, and much more protectionist of the Ukraine to refuse to make a similar deal.

Yes, I think it has been wise of Bielorussians to make a contract for what they need to receive, but cannot afford according to free market prices, adding in what GAZPROM asked them for. They got what they need, and GAZPROM got what it needs - isn't it good? Ukraine has come another way, so naturally the terms must be different. Cannot see anything wrong here.
(Though I do not like Mr. Lukashebko the Bielorussian President much dearly than our own).

But are the tourist facilities as well developed is in Crimea? All that wine tasting and beautiful countryside…

Yes, Crimea is great. And it is a shame it hadn't been turned into the natural resort all Europe will eventually will crave to visit.
But speaking of the Russian fleet - I cannot see our own Caucasus shore as a worse place for it. (With about the same wines and countrisides for you and me, BTW).

In principle it’s wrong for anyone to do it, in reality all countries do. Fighting for influence and control of natural resources is the way of the world...

Yep, exactly. And it is MUCH MORE WRONG to do it yourself - as USA does - and call Russia names for the same activities. But, of course, it is a natural thing for politicians.

Absolutely, but just because he’s within his rights doesn’t mean he’s played his hand well. Before the ‘Orange Revolution’ the price of gas sold by Russia to the Ukraine was determined by a number of factors, market value being one, the strategic relationship between the countries, for the want of a better phrase, being another. As soon as the Ukraine pointed itself in the direction of the west, one of those factors was removed and as you rightly pointed out, it was obvious that the price of gas would sooner or later be re-valued. Putin’s mistake was to make the change in one sudden hike, to re-use my phrase from an earlier post he’s “frightened the horses” in the process. Now in the west the news is full of the EU re-examining its future energy policy as Russia is seen as an unreliable source of supply. For the want of introducing price increases over a number of years he’s caused a crisis of confidence in Russian Gas that could cost far more revenue than he will get in the short term. Grand gestures might play well at home but he’s not doing Russia any favours on the international stage.
But it’s ordinary Ukrainians I feel sorry for. They are being threatened with hardship because their politicians are playing at being independent, and Putin seems to want to show the Ukraine is being punished for wanting to walk it’s own path.

Yeah. But you know, this change has been discussed with the Ukraine for almost a year now. So to say Russia is wrong for starting it all in Winter is not too right really. If there are no factors that could change Russian's attitude - then prices MUST be adjusted to the European level. (Why, I have heard myself Mr. Yushenko publically announcing not long ago that Ukraine's funds are bigger than Russian - some of his aides must have misinformed him, I think, but that's very interesting in this situation). As to "crisis of confidence" etc. - OK, Russia will have the gas. We have many uses for it ourselves, and if we do not sell it now - we will have it later, to be sold for much higher prices or to use internally.
And, really, that NEEDED TO BE DONE - that it became evident that Ukraine is stealing our gas. Europe must have experienced it with its own cold toes, that huge amounts of Russian money are stolen every day. Otherwise they would have kept nominating Ukraine as the most free-market economy in Europe or something, and looking patronizing at Russia asking to make Ukraine pay for Russian gas... It is not the first time Russia announced that Ukraine steals its gas, but until now nobody noticed...

Anyway, regards,

K-S

Yes, thank you for a very interesting hours that I had thinking this through,
Sergey.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

I think your understanding is right, speaking of Russian leaders, but the same is right to some extent in respect to any other country: each one tends to have as many friendly or dependent territories between them and potentially dangerous countries.

Sure, although I think in recent Russian history this has happened with less subtlety than other examples. Why can’t you topple democratically elected governments with covert means like everyone else?

…we have the same saying: "An apple doesn't fall far from the apple tree"…

Yes, that’s the same saying.

As to peoples... People always want the same: bread and show. Sex and money. Democracy or just principles of living concern a very small part of citizens.

I’d say it was a small part of every person, although perhaps an important part. Better opportunities for your children is a more powerful desire than we think.

Some of them want to go west, but only because they imagined for many years that the westerners were wealthy and the life there is much better and easier. They do not know how it is in reality, and if they learned, I think that it is very much possible that they would have changed their minds. So again it is for leaders and the propaganda..

I’m not sure if by ‘go west’ you mean move to the west or become a more westernised style economy. Whichever, I know Ukrainians that have visited the EU and Russia, and I know which future held the most interest for them; they are a small part of the population of course.

It is my personal knowledge that the hard-working people in Russia live better, than in Ukraine, I have seen that for myself.

There are many reasons why Ukrainians would wish to keep close ties with Russia; I’m not that ‘our villagers could one day be as rich as Russian villagers’ is one of them…

But I have no intention to call for both our countries to unite - this should have come from Ukrainians, I think.

But you’d like to see it? Never have sex with your ex Sergo, it’s like a dog going back to its own vomit…

As it is, I've heard too many Ukrainians to say that they do not want "to feed the Moskaly" any more ten or fifteen years ago.

I’m not totally sure what ‘Feed the Moskaly’ means…

By now everybody but the idiots there have already understood that they were wrong, and Russia had fed Ukraine not less than Ukraine fed Russia, at least.

Ha ha, I can almost smell the Russian nationalist in you bubbling to the surface…
You see, as much as I agree with the arguments that Russia is putting forward, the way she’s doing it smacks of something else; hurt Russian pride. That bit of patriotism in all Russians that just can’t stand the thought that the Ukraine has chosen independence.
Russia may be right to ask for a fair price for hers goods but part of her stance reminds me of a wife who’s caught her husband in bed with another woman and instead of packing his suitcase and showing him out the door she’s throwing his clothes out of the bedroom window and shouting abuse at him as scrabbles round trying to gather them up, much to the entertainment of the neighbours. Something tells me that even reasonable intelligent Russians like you have that bit of nationalism in you, and that part of you is dragging you up to the bedroom window with Putin and you’re having the time of your life throwing the Ukraine’s underpants down onto the lawn. I just hope for your sake it’s a freshly laundered pair…

But again - it is easier to topple anything, than to rebuild it right afterwards.

Sure, but not impossible; as I can see massive changes in the Baltic states in the course of five or six years. Smaller economies, that are easier to change of course, but investment is making changes quicker than you would think possible.

And as we are not sure of the West intentions - what we are discussing here?

That former eastern block countries have to calculate Western intentions, compare them to what they have already and work out what is best for their future; it seems that many already have.

Iraq and Afghanistan have already shown what supposedly even the best intentions could do.

Ah Afghanistan, the horse everyone’s had a ride on…

Yep, but that would have been an act of... not war, but much more unfriendly step, then one Russia has done. As if you do not want to sell your goods for a bad price, but are ready to pay for the transit - it is pure blackmail to cut the pipe, and I think it is an unfriendly act not towards Russia, but all the gas-consuming Europe as well.

I read a comment on the BBC site that Ukraine already got a significant part of its gas from Turkmenistan. I’m sure that’s not true, otherwise Russia would already have committed a ‘much more unfriendly step’.
Incidentally, cutting off heating to pensioners, including many from the generation that defeated fascism, in the middle of winter as a bargaining tool for a commercial re-negotiation, would be considered by many to be fairly unfriendly.

You know, there had been more than 11 years to adjust that, if I remember correctly.

almost 15 now I think.

It is not much, and it were not enough for Russia to get well in the far regions, but really, Ukraine got much better off than Russia after the fall of the USSR. It is enough to mention Crimea, I think, but there are many companies vitally important for Russia that were left in Ukraine - airplanes production, military, metal and other chemical... And Ukraine has better climat, and better earth qualities... So if that is mostly ruin and theft that we see here and there in the Ukraine - it is not Russian fault, but that of the Ukrainian leaders.

. But how much effort has been put in to making that adjustment from internal USSR market to global economy? Clearly not enough, and as you say that is down to the Ukrainian leaders during that period, but not one suspects without encouragement from Moscow. Time will tell if Yushenko is any more competent, I for one am not holding my breath.

Our leaders are not angels either - take our Major Yury Lujkov (have you liked him after the BBC program?). But with all his bad qualities, he has done Moscow so much good as nobody before him, so I will gladly close my eye on his other activities.

Interesting guy. On one hand I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him, but on the other he’s not Putin.

Yep, exactly. And it is MUCH MORE WRONG to do it yourself - as USA does - and call Russia names for the same activities. But, of course, it is a natural thing for politicians.

Hypocrisy is the thing I hate most in politics, but if you want to compile a list of every instance it’ll be a long one, and more countries than just America will be on it…

Yeah. But you know, this change has been discussed with the Ukraine for almost a year now. So to say Russia is wrong for starting it all in Winter is not too right really.

Long, drawn out negotiations of this type are not uncommon, neither is brinkmanship. As you say, discussions have been ongoing for most of last year, yet the plug is pulled at the coldest time of year and before the upcoming Ukrainian parliamentary elections in March. Co-incidence? Pull the other leg, its got bells on.
BTW, I used to work for life insurance companies, so I know the effect cold weather has on old people, even with heating; they go down like flies. So the difference between cutting gas supplies in summer and the middle of winter as an important one, and one that should hang on the conscience of everyone involved in these negotiations.

If there are no factors that could change Russian's attitude - then prices MUST be adjusted to the European level. (Why, I have heard myself Mr. Yushenko publically announcing not long ago that Ukraine's funds are bigger than Russian - some of his aides must have misinformed him, I think, but that's very interesting in this situation).

I’ve said before, I agree that Russian should be able to charge the market rate for its products, I have no argument with that. But that doesn’t mean that a compromise deal couldn’t be struck, indeed that’s exactly what’s happened.

As to "crisis of confidence" etc. - OK, Russia will have the gas. We have many uses for it ourselves, and if we do not sell it now - we will have it later, to be sold for much higher prices or to use internally.

Well, as much of Ukraine’s supply in the future seems to be coming from Turkmenistan, I’m sure that you and your gas will be very happy together…

And, really, that NEEDED TO BE DONE - that it became evident that Ukraine is stealing our gas. Europe must have experienced it with its own cold toes, that huge amounts of Russian money are stolen every day. Otherwise they would have kept nominating Ukraine as the most free-market economy in Europe or something, and looking patronizing at Russia asking to make Ukraine pay for Russian gas... It is not the first time Russia announced that Ukraine steals its gas, but until now nobody noticed...

Or cared…

Yes, thank you for a very interesting hours that I had thinking this through,

Really? I’m just reeling this crap off the top of my head…

K-S

 

[Sergo]

Sure, although I think in recent Russian history this has happened with less subtlety than other examples. Why can’t you topple democratically elected governments with covert means like everyone else?

I think Russia used covert operations too. But they went wrong too often, and the people who done them went public soon: I would like to mention Afganistan again, when Amin residence was stormed. Everybody knows all the details now. (Though even then all the thing looked so obvious, that even befor the thing was made public I, the school boy then, suspected the truth...).
Maybe it's lack of professionalism showing. We are too straightforward for all these under-table things...

I’d say it was a small part of every person, although perhaps an important part. Better opportunities for your children is a more powerful desire than we think.

Yes and no. If that has been really the case, the world would have been much better place obviously. But people everywhere are not that good: immediate personal profit comes before everything else almost in every case. Of course those exceptions are what move us forward, but have you heard of a book by Vladimir Il'ich Lenin: "One Step Forward and Two Backwards"? It would seem that is not the worst explanation of what is going on...

I’m not sure if by ‘go west’ you mean move to the west or become a more westernised style economy. Whichever, I know Ukrainians that have visited the EU and Russia, and I know which future held the most interest for them; they are a small part of the population of course.

I have meant both. And you know, to visit and to live there are not the same things. Of course life in the West looks much better. And it really is better. But imagine how difficult it could be for a person from some rural place to adjust for living, say, in the UK... See, the person lived for many years by feeding chickens, geese and pigs, and selling on the market some of this to get his tools etc. Most of the food (up to 95% really) he had to stole from the nearby fields, as he couldn't afford to buy it. And all the neighbors lived exactly the same thing, so he could feel himself a part of the society, priding himself on the fastest fatting pigs or something equally plain.
Imagine him in the UK. I do not think he will live the life of his British neighbors in a hundred years, not his grandchildren maybe, with not enough money to buy a home, to pay for education or something. Of course he will learn and maybe he will even prosper, who knows. But for very long he will feel himself the lousiest thing, and would have to work as hard as possible, and to keep his mouth shut. What for? For his grandchildren? Maybe, but an average Joe will just steal crop for his animals from the nearby fields, make samogon and go happy. That's exactly what happened over the last 15 years (thank you), with the same possibility open for everybody: to work much harder and to prosper. But people didn't need that, and half of the economy (maybe much more) that Ukraine got from the fall of USSR going to ruins.

There are many reasons why Ukrainians would wish to keep close ties with Russia; I’m not that ‘our villagers could one day be as rich as Russian villagers’ is one of them…

I am not that sure. I think that could be the immediate concern for many villagers, that in Russia there are more goods of better quality available for the same or smaller price, and the same kilogram of pork or a litre of milk costs slightly more, than in Ukraine. People from Ukraine are the most of our "illegal immigrants", going before Bielorussians, Moldovans and people from the South-East regions, working as construction workers, or just selling their food products here rather than in Ukraine.

But you’d like to see it? Never have sex with your ex Sergo, it’s like a dog going back to its own vomit…

Yes, if that happened - I would have liked it. And this feeling is shared by most Russians. But of course if that ever happens - it must be wish of Ukraine people primarily.
You know, I like to explain the ways countries go by looking at the ways individuals go. And it is the same here: never say never. You never knows what could happen tomorrow, or a hundred years from now, or three hundred. Ukrainian people were much closer to Russians, than to Germans, French or other. So I imagine they must have their chances at checking how it feels to be "Eastern Westerners". Then we will see.

I’m not totally sure what ‘Feed the Moskaly’ means…

Oh, Moskaly is the same as Limeys, if I remember the spelling right.
Before Ukraine really turned independent there has been much talk there about Ukrainian food going to Russia (it was time of deficit, when even to buy meat in a shop could be considered luck). But soon after that it became evident that Russia had meat and sugar and grain as much as it needed, without begging for it from Ukraine. And, for examle, in Ukraine they had sugar and meat factories closed, with sugar shortages the result of that sometimes... Cannot understand it myself... That's facts that I learned mysellf while being there.

Ha ha, I can almost smell the Russian nationalist in you bubbling to the surface…
You see, as much as I agree with the arguments that Russia is putting forward, the way she’s doing it smacks of something else; hurt Russian pride. That bit of patriotism in all Russians that just can’t stand the thought that the Ukraine has chosen independence.
Russia may be right to ask for a fair price for hers goods but part of her stance reminds me of a wife who’s caught her husband in bed with another woman and instead of packing his suitcase and showing him out the door she’s throwing his clothes out of the bedroom window and shouting abuse at him as scrabbles round trying to gather them up, much to the entertainment of the neighbours. Something tells me that even reasonable intelligent Russians like you have that bit of nationalism in you, and that part of you is dragging you up to the bedroom window with Putin and you’re having the time of your life throwing the Ukraine’s underpants down onto the lawn. I just hope for your sake it’s a freshly laundered pair…

I do not think you are right here. I do not give a damn about Ukraine (or any other country of the former USSR) became a wealthy independent country. I even do not give a damn about NATO coming to every Russian border, as I do not believe that's what threatens Russia. I would have liked some of these countries uniting together again, if such would be their wish, as that union would be stronger than they are alone, I think, and as people from these countries go to each other more frequently than to other countries, so it would be easier, with all family links etc. That's all. If Ukraine will turn a wealthier country than Russia - why should I have any hard feelings about that?

That former eastern block countries have to calculate Western intentions, compare them to what they have already and work out what is best for their future; it seems that many already have.

To see results one have to look farther, sometimes much farther, than today. Who would have imagined USSR would have been broken in this way, say, in 1950?

I read a comment on the BBC site that Ukraine already got a significant part of its gas from Turkmenistan. I’m sure that’s not true, otherwise Russia would already have committed a ‘much more unfriendly step’.
Incidentally, cutting off heating to pensioners, including many from the generation that defeated fascism, in the middle of winter as a bargaining tool for a commercial re-negotiation, would be considered by many to be fairly unfriendly.

It's true, but in a sense that Russia sells in Europe gas that was partly bought in other countries. Turkmenistan gas costs us $80-90, if I remember it correctly. So the price GAZPROM set now with Ukraine means that Ukraine buys Russian gas for $230, and gas which Russia bought from other sources for $80 or so, total price getting to $100 or so.
Until now there are NO direct gaz contracts between Ukraine and Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan or else, so the recent announcements about Ukraine getting non-Russian gaz out of the Russian pipe (i.e., not stealing Russian gus) is absolute bullshit.
As to pensioneers... Ukraine has enough of its own gas to keep the pensioneers happy. It's the gas for the Metallurgy ang Chemistry that needs to be bought, and with gas for Ukraine costing less then on the internal Russian market, that constituted wrong market conditions, wouldn't you think?

But how much effort has been put in to making that adjustment from internal USSR market to global economy? Clearly not enough, and as you say that is down to the Ukrainian leaders during that period, but not one suspects without encouragement from Moscow. Time will tell if Yushenko is any more competent, I for one am not holding my breath.

Of course time will tell. But so far he has made a lot of wrong moves.

Interesting guy. On one hand I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him, but on the other he’s not Putin.

Yep, exactly. We had a marvellous guy, "an economical genius" Gavriil Popov, before Luzhkov as our Major. I have read some of Mr. Popov's works and liked his ideas very much. I am sure he has not stolen a kopeck during his term. But he hasn't done anything useful for the Moscovites to see - so nobody even mentioned for him to be elected for the second term.

 

[Sergo]

Hypocrisy is the thing I hate most in politics, but if you want to compile a list of every instance it’ll be a long one, and more countries than just America will be on it…

Sure. But the latest announcements of Mrs. Rice (sp?) shows that USA should be quite high on that list.

Long, drawn out negotiations of this type are not uncommon, neither is brinkmanship. As you say, discussions have been ongoing for most of last year, yet the plug is pulled at the coldest time of year and before the upcoming Ukrainian parliamentary elections in March. Co-incidence? Pull the other leg, its got bells on.
BTW, I used to work for life insurance companies, so I know the effect cold weather has on old people, even with heating; they go down like flies. So the difference between cutting gas supplies in summer and the middle of winter as an important one, and one that should hang on the conscience of everyone involved in these negotiations.

Of course that is not coincidence. I've already mentioned that the blow was made when it would surely be felt by all the interested parties. Without that nobody would have cared about Ukraine stealing our gas - and that must have been stopped.
As to the conscience - again it is the problem of Ukraine leaders, that preferred to pull "independence string" rather than to pay a fair price. It reminds me of a guy going to a market and demanding to sell a bottle of vodka to him for half price, as othervise he couldn't afford it, and that would be his independence breaching, economical pushing etc.

I’ve said before, I agree that Russian should be able to charge the market rate for its products, I have no argument with that. But that doesn’t mean that a compromise deal couldn’t be struck, indeed that’s exactly what’s happened.

Yes, but a compromise is what both parties come to, not what the buying party wishes to inflict on the seller under political pretentions: "Oh, we will not pay you what you ask us, as you are threatening our independence and economy". Pfui. Give me that bottle for half price.

Really? I’m just reeling this crap off the top of my head…

K-S

Oh... In this case you are much happier than me...

BTW, have you heard that we will have the Big Ben of our own? They made it of ice in the center of Moscow...

 

[Kenny Shovel]

I think Russia used covert operations too. But they went wrong too often, and the people who done them went public soon: I would like to mention Afghanistan again, when Amin residence was stormed. Everybody knows all the details now. (Though even then all the thing looked so obvious, that even before the thing was made public I, the school boy then, suspected the truth...).

From memory this wasn’t exactly subtle either was it? Perhaps I say that because it was always reported in Britain that Russian was involved in that?

Maybe it's lack of professionalism showing. We are too straightforward for all these under-table things...

I don’t know, there was plenty of ‘under the table things’ regarding Russian and British involvement in Afghanistan during the 19th century; what the British at the time called “The Great Game”.

If that has been really the case, the world would have been much better place obviously. But people everywhere are not that good: immediate personal profit comes before everything else almost in every case.

I’d say current circumstances and chances of a better future both figure. Perhaps in Russia the here and now is slightly more important; we’ve talked before about Russians sometimes not planning things, like holidays, because of an attitude that things in the future may not happen.

Of course those exceptions are what move us forward, but have you heard of a book by Vladimir Il'ich Lenin: "One Step Forward and Two Backwards"? It would seem that is not the worst explanation of what is going on...

I’ve only every seen collected works of Lenin in bookshops, although I guess that would cover the book you are talking about.

I have meant both. And you know, to visit and to live there are not the same things. Of course life in the West looks much better. And it really is better. But imagine how difficult it could be for a person from some rural place to adjust for living, say, in the UK... See, the person lived for many years by feeding chickens, geese and pigs, and selling on the market some of this to get his tools etc. Most of the food (up to 95% really) he had to stole from the nearby fields, as he couldn't afford to buy it. And all the neighbours lived exactly the same thing, so he could feel himself a part of the society, priding himself on the fastest fatting pigs or something equally plain.

Of course it is difficult to live in another country with a very different culture. Although the example you give can apply to the difficulties a rural Russian could find in any big city to a degree. Don’t students from the countryside studying at MSU have problems adjusting, as well as finding the money to survive?

Imagine him in the UK. I do not think he will live the life of his British neighbors in a hundred years, not his grandchildren maybe, with not enough money to buy a home, to pay for education or something. Of course he will learn and maybe he will even prosper, who knows. But for very long he will feel himself the lousiest thing, and would have to work as hard as possible, and to keep his mouth shut. What for? For his grandchildren?

I’m really not sure what this has to do with the price of gas but there you go…
At the moment there are tens, probably hundreds, of thousands of Poles and other Eastern European workers in Britain. Some are doctors and builders who are doing the same jobs they had in Poland, but for better money. Some are unskilled or perhaps university educated but doing manual work over here for minimum wage, but still far more than they would get in Poland. I don’t think it’s a case of coming here to live, as ones I have talk too, a couple work for my uncle, seem to see their time in Britain as an opportunity to save up some money before returning home to an improved life there. Of course that may or may not happen.

Maybe, but an average Joe will just steal crop for his animals from the nearby fields, make samogon and go happy. That's exactly what happened over the last 15 years (thank you), with the same possibility open for everybody: to work much harder and to prosper. But people didn't need that, and half of the economy (maybe much more) that Ukraine got from the fall of USSR going to ruins.

You are probably right about this, but mis-management of the Ukrainian economy since independence does not mean that people their will be looking at Russia with envy, they are just as likely to look at Poland, Czech Republic and the Baltics and see a better way.

I am not that sure. I think that could be the immediate concern for many villagers, that in Russia there are more goods of better quality available for the same or smaller price, and the same kilogram of pork or a litre of milk costs slightly more, than in Ukraine.

Perhaps for the rural population yes, but they are not the most mobile members of the population are they.

People from Ukraine are the most of our "illegal immigrants", going before Bielorussians, Moldovans and people from the South-East regions, working as construction workers, or just selling their food products here rather than in Ukraine.

Sure, although any lifting of visa restrictions for Ukrainians to the EU may see a change in that. Something that the Ukrainian Government has made a priority, it will be interesting to see if and when that happens.

Yes, if that happened - I would have liked it. And this feeling is shared by most Russians. But of course if that ever happens - it must be wish of Ukraine people primarily.

Well, exactly.

You know, I like to explain the ways countries go by looking at the ways individuals go. And it is the same here: never say never. You never knows what could happen tomorrow, or a hundred years from now, or three hundred. Ukrainian people were much closer to Russians, than to Germans, French or other. So I imagine they must have their chances at checking how it feels to be "Eastern Westerners". Then we will see.

Of course Ukrainians will always be close to Russia, in a way, geography apart, Australia will always be close to Britain. But they can have other alliances too, and choose their own path; every child has to leave home eventually.

Before Ukraine really turned independent there has been much talk there about Ukrainian food going to Russia (it was time of deficit, when even to buy meat in a shop could be considered luck). But soon after that it became evident that Russia had meat and sugar and grain as much as it needed, without begging for it from Ukraine.

Yes, I worked out later what you meant. The impression that Russia needed the Ukrainian breadbasket; well, you’d think Stalin would have taught them a lesson about that in the 30’s.

I do not think you are right here. I do not give a damn about Ukraine (or any other country of the former USSR) became a wealthy independent country. I even do not give a damn about NATO coming to every Russian border, as I do not believe that's what threatens Russia.

Yes, I was winding you up.

I would have liked some of these countries uniting together again, if such would be their wish, as that union would be stronger than they are alone, I think, and as people from these countries go to each other more frequently than to other countries, so it would be easier, with all family links etc

What, like the British Commonwealth? That’s just a symbolic thing Sergo, learn from it. Countries formally under your control will want to be totally free of you, there is no going back, however much you want it.

To see results one have to look farther, sometimes much farther, than today. Who would have imagined USSR would have been broken in this way, say, in 1950?

Who would have said in 1980?

It's true, but in a sense that Russia sells in Europe gas that was partly bought in other countries. Turkmenistan gas costs us $80-90, if I remember it correctly. So the price GAZPROM set now with Ukraine means that Ukraine buys Russian gas for $230, and gas which Russia bought from other sources for $80 or so, total price getting to $100 or so.

The price I saw quoted for Turkmenistan gas was more like $45-50.

Until now there are NO direct gaz contracts between Ukraine and Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan or else, so the recent announcements about Ukraine getting non-Russian gaz out of the Russian pipe (i.e., not stealing Russian gus) is absolute bullshit.

Ok.

As to pensioners... Ukraine has enough of its own gas to keep the pensioners happy. It's the gas for the Metallurgy ang Chemistry that needs to be bought, and with gas for Ukraine costing less then on the internal Russian market, that constituted wrong market conditions, wouldn't you think?

I’ve told you several times that I understand Russia’s complains that Ukrainian gas companies can buy Russian gas for $45 and then sell it on for $200+ to other countries in Europe are legitimate complains. My disagreement is with her negotiation technique.

Of course time will tell. But so far he has made a lot of wrong moves.

Quite possibly, but hopefully they were Yushenko’s moves in the first place.

 

[Kenny Shovel]

Yep, exactly. We had a marvellous guy, "an economical genius" Gavriil Popov, before Luzhkov as our Major. I have read some of Mr. Popov's works and liked his ideas very much. I am sure he has not stolen a kopeck during his term. But he hasn't done anything useful for the Moscovites to see - so nobody even mentioned for him to be elected for the second term.

I know nothing about Popov, but the BBC film on Luzhkov said he was now going to stand as Putin’s man. Is this still happening?

Sure. But the latest announcements of Mrs. Rice (sp?) shows that USA should be quite high on that list.

The bigger and more powerful you are, the more people look at you, the more they look, the more they see. Pick the most friendly race you can think of, give them Americas power and you’d see the same result, more or less.

Of course that is not coincidence. I've already mentioned that the blow was made when it would surely be felt by all the interested parties. Without that nobody would have cared about Ukraine stealing our gas - and that must have been stopped.
As to the conscience - again it is the problem of Ukraine leaders, that preferred to pull "independence string" rather than to pay a fair price. It reminds me of a guy going to a market and demanding to sell a bottle of vodka to him for half price, as othervise he couldn't afford it, and that would be his independence breaching, economical pushing etc.

And yet the Ukraine seems to be getting it’s vodka for only three quarters price. They negoiated a good deal from what I can see, the brinkmanship appears to be from both sides not just one.

Yes, but a compromise is what both parties come to, not what the buying party wishes to inflict on the seller under political pretentions: "Oh, we will not pay you what you ask us, as you are threatening our independence and economy". Pfui. Give me that bottle for half price.

Have you never heard of bartering? I suspect the deal they ended up with is one they would have been happy to take on day one.

BTW, have you heard that we will have the Big Ben of our own? They made it of ice in the centre of Moscow...

That’s not made the news over here yet. If and when the reciprocal Basil’s cathedral appears in Trafalgar square it will…

K-S